I am a CPF Volunteer. If you find this blog post providing useful information about CPF matters and it leads you to using CPF online services, you may fill in my full name “Tan Choong Hwee” in the “Referrer Name” field in some selected CPF online services.
The increase of BHS amount from $66,000 in 2022 to $68,500 in 2023 represents a +3.79% increase. So I have revised the annual % increase of BHS to be rounded to 4% and the nearest multiples of $500.
With that assumption, the BHS projection is revised to the following table:
Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.
Yesterday (24 November 2022) was the auction day for the 6-month T-bill BS22123S issue. Similar to the previous BS22122Z issue, this time the release of the auction results was also delayed due to high volume of applications, but at least it was released earlier before 3:30pm, as the banks had probably gained experience from previous issue.
Auction Results
Total Amount Allotted = S$4.8 billion Total Amount Applied = S$11.9 billion
Total Non-Competitive Amount Allotted = S$1.9 billion % of Non-Competitive Amount Allotted = 77.78% Total Non-Competitive Amount Applied = 1.9 / 77.78% = S$2.4 billion
Total amount allotted increased from S$4.5 billion to S$4.8 billion.
Total amount applied dropped from S$14.2 billion to S$11.9 billion.
Total non-competitive amount applied dropped from S$3.6 billion to S$2.4 billion.
% of non-competitive amount allotted increased from 49.68% to 77.78%.
Total competitive amount applied dropped from S$10.6 billion to S$9.5 billion.
Cut-off yield dropped from 4% to 3.9%.
Median yield stayed the same at 3.5%.
Average yield increased from 2.87% to 3.26%.
Observations
Overall supply increased while demand reduced.
Those non-competitive applicants realized from the previous T-bill auction that they could get partial allotment, probably driving some of them to competitive bids this round.
This resulted in lower over-subscription for non-competitive applications, hence they could get higher % allotment this time.
Increase in average yield suggests that the competitive bidders might have realized the impact of too much lowballing would drag down the cut-off yield, and they are more rational in their bidding this round.
Yet, the cut-off yield still suffered a slight drop of 0.1%.
From the table, I noticed that the T-bill yield delta from MAS bill is -0.6%, the same as the previous T-bill yield delta. And it was negative since the 4th October BS22119T T-bill issue. Negative yield delta means yield curve inversion had occurred (i.e. shorter term 12-week MAS bills are having higher yields than the longer-term 6-month T-bills).
Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.
One popular question raised in the financial community is that many people are seeking opinions from others on where the cut-off yield is going with the upcoming T-bills. Presumably they are trying to gauge the market sentiment that will help them in deciding whether to apply for T-bills and the bids they want to submit.
Let’s take a look at 2 methods of yield projection in this blog post.
MAS Bills to T-Bills Projection
In the 1M65 Telegram community, one member (@volatilitytrader88) suggested forecasting the cut-off yield of the 6-month T-Bills based on the preceding 12-week MAS Bills auction results.
MAS Bills are the shorter tenor bills meant for institutions only. Currently MAS issues 4-week and 12-week MAS Bills, and the frequency of issuance is weekly. Everything else are very similar between MAS Bills and T-Bills.
You can find 12-week MAS Bills with auction date about 1 to 3 days before that of the 6-month T-Bills. The recency of MAS Bills auction results provide a good indication of the institution sentiments on yield. With the institutions being the main players also in T-bills, the cut-off yield would likely not deviating too much from the MAS Bills’ yield.
Here I tabulated the 12-week MAS Bills and 6-month T-bills in 2022 side-by-side, computed the yield delta between the 2 bills and a few statistical data (maximum, minimum, average, standard deviation, and +1/-1SD) for YTD data:
The average yield delta (T-bills minus MAS bills) is 0.07%. With a standard deviation (SD) of 0.19%, it means the T-bills cut-off yield could be within the 1 SD range of -0.12% to +0.25% from the preceding MAS bills’ yield.
Linear Trendline Projection
In my blog post on SA Shielding using T-Bills, I used the linear trendline projection feature in Microsoft Excel to plot the T-bills cut-off yield chart:
Of course the rationale for this projection is that the cut-off yield is likely going to continue trending up in a linear fashion as long as the US Federal Reserve continues with its aggressive rate hikes.
How Reliable are the Projection?
As you can see from my analysis of the BS22122Z T-bill issue, there are many factors that could affect the auction outcome. In fact, the BS22122Z T-bill cut-off yield had the greatest deviation from the preceding MAS bills, and the earlier BS22121F T-bill cut-off yield was about the furthest away from the trendline.
No projection can be perfect, therefore we should take any such projected yield with a grain of salt. More importantly, we should make our bidding decision based on what we want to achieve, not what we hope the market would give us.
In this announcement, Tokenize Exchange listed the following points to assure users:
They have no exposure to FTT (FTX token) nor outstanding loans to FTX.
They have a dedicated risk team to continually access their financial health.
Their proprietary token TKX is not used as collateral for loans and has no exposure to debt.
They communicate and ensure compliance with MAS and financial regulators in Asia.
Personally I’m glad that Tokenize Exchange made the effort to assure users of their financial standing in view of the FTX Saga. It gave me some level of comfort and confidence in keeping my entire crypto portfolio with them.
I am well aware of the single exchange concentration risk that I am facing. A few friends had already advised me to withdraw my crypto holdings to cold wallet. But frankly the capital I invested in my crypto portfolio is pretty small, that would be spread too thin if I diversify into multiple exchanges to mitigate concentration risk. After all, I am prepared to lose it all when I set foot in this journey.
This blog post serves as a content page for a series of blog posts published here on bond investment. I would update the list as I add more bond investment posts to the blog.
Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.
Since I published the blog post “Guide to CPF SA Shielding Using T-Bills” last month, the cut-off yield has crossed 4% p.a. in the 1 November 2022 issue of the T-Bill. The relatively high yield of T-bills had attracted many retail investors to this previously ignored fixed income instruments, not only for the purpose of SA Shielding, but also for general short term investing using cash, SRS and CPF.
Therefore, it makes sense for me to extract what I had written on T-bills from that SA Shielding blog post, amend and expand it to provide an extensive guide on T-bills from a general investing perspective.
What are Treasury Bills (T-Bills)?
T-Bills are short term Singapore Government Securities (SGS) issued by Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) at a discount to their face value. Investors would receive the full face value at maturity.
As it is fully backed by the Singapore Government, T-bills are considered a risk-free AAA-rated fixed income instrument. There are 2 tenors, 6 months or 1 year T-bills that MAS issues. The T-bill is issued at S$100 face value.
The interest rate is determined by auction, and the interest is paid as a discount upfront to successful applicants after auction results are released. The full face value of T-bill is returned to investors at maturity.
At the calendar webpage, click the T-bills tab and the “+” button beside the 6-Month and 1-Year T-bill headings to view a complete list of T-bills in the year.
The 4 key dates refer to the dates when T-bill information is announced, when auction results are released, when T-bill is issued, and when it is mature. The Tenor column is self-explanatory, it refers to the tenor of the T-bill.
The T-bill can be identified by the Issue Code (given by MAS) or the ISIN Code (ISIN stands for International Securities Identification Number, a 12-digit alphanumeric code given by ISIN Organization that uniquely identifies a security).
The state of a specific T-bill is given under the Status column:
Upcoming: Refers to upcoming T-bill not yet open for applications.
Open: Refers to T-bill announced and opened for applications, but not yet auctioned, and you can click the “View details” link to read about the Issue Details.
Closed: Refers to T-bill closed for applications, either to be auctioned or issued soon, and you can click the “View details” link to read about the Auction Results after they are released.
The 6-month T-bills are issued fortnightly and the 1-Year T-bills quarterly.
For cash application, you will need an individual CDP account with Direct Crediting Services (DCS) linked to your bank account with one of the 3 local banks (DBS/POSB, OCBC, UOB). Application can be done through the bank’s ATMs and internet banking portal.
For SRS application, you will need a SRS account with one of the 3 SRS operators (DBS/POSB, OCBC, UOB). Application can be done through the bank’s internet banking portal.
For CPF application using OA, you will need a CPF Investment Account (CPFIA) with one of the 3 local banks (DBS, OCBC or UOB) and application can only be done in person at any branch of your CPFIA agent bank.
For CPF application using SA, CPFIA is not needed, but you will need a Debt Securities Account with one of the 3 local banks (DBS, OCBC or UOB). Application can only be done in person at any branch of the banks.
While the T-bills application cut-off time is by noon on the auction day, the banks may close the applications deadline 1 to 2 business days before the auction. It is advisable that you check with your bank for the exact cut-off time. You can set alarm on your mobile phone to remind you to apply for T-bill.
How to Submit the Bids for T-Bills?
The minimum bid amount for T-bills is S$1,000, and you have to submit your bids in multiples of S$1,000. You can submit multiple bids within the same fund source and across different fund sources (cash, SRS, CPFIS). There is a cap of S$1 million per auction, but no limit in term of total T-bills investment amount you can accumulate over multiple tranches.
For this T-bill issue, MAS offers S$4.5 billion to investors. The auction is conducted based on uniform price auction, meaning once the cut-off yield is determined after the auction, those who bid at the cut-off yield or lower will get allotment.
There are 2 types of applications: competitive and non-competitive. Competitive applicants would submit bids (yes, they can submit multiple bids) indicating the minimum yields they are willing to accept, whereas non-competitive applicants do not participate in the bidding process. All competitive and non-competitive applicants who succeed in getting allotment (full or partial) would get the cut-off yield.
There are 3 things you need to decide when you submit your bids for the T-bill:
You decide on which source of funds (cash, SRS, CPF) you want to use to apply for T-bill, and you can use the corresponding channels to apply.
You decide on how much you want to invest (investment amount) in each source of funds, the amount must be in multiples of S$1,000.
You decide on which type of applications (competitive or non-competitive) you want to submit.
For cash and SRS applications, the full investment amount would be deducted from your bank and SRS accounts respectively upon applications.
For CPF applications, only the discounted capital (i.e. capital minus interest) would be deducted from your CPFIA for successful bidders after allotment is confirmed.
How is the Allotment Done for Non-Competitive Applications?
After the application is closed, non-competitive bids would be allotted first, and the allotment is capped at 40% of the total amount offered. If the total amount of non-competitive bids is within the 40% allotment cap, all non-competitive applicants would receive full allotment.
However, if there is an over-subscription, the applicants would receive partial allotment on a pro-rated basis:
Allotment Ratio = Total Amount Allotted / Total Amount Applied
To ensure that the final allotments are in denominations of S$1,000, there would be random adjustments to the allotment. This means there is a possibility that some small bidders (e.g. S$1,000) might not get any allotment.
How is the Allotment Done for Competitive Applications?
After the non-competitive applications are settled, all the competitive applications would be arranged in ascending yield order (i.e. from the lowest to highest yields). The amount applied for each yield are accumulated starting from the lowest yield, and when the cumulative amount exceeds the amount offered to competitive applications (which is total amount offered minus amount allotted to non-competitive applications), that would be the cut-off yield.
The allotment for the competitive applications are done in the following manner:
Those who bid lower yield than the cut-off yield would get full allotment.
Those who bid exactly at the cut-off yield would get pro-rated allotment, i.e. the balance amount offered to the applicants at cut-off yield would be distributed in proportion to the amount they applied.
Those who bid higher yield than the cut-off yield would get nothing.
Again, random adjustments are done to ensure the final allotments are in multiples of S$1,000.
% of Competitive Amount Allotted at Cut-off = Approximately 64%
Cut-off Yield = 4% p.a.
Cut-off Price = S$98.005
Median Yield = 3.5% p.a.
Median Price = S$98.255
Average Yield = 2.87% p.a.
Average Price = S$98.569
How does Random Adjustment to Allotment Work?
This BS22122Z auction is the first time in T-bill history that the non-competitive applications are over-subscribed, resulting in a 49.68% allotment ratio. This is where I learnt about random adjustment to ensure the final allotments are in multiples of S$1,000.
For example, if you submit a non-competitive application of S$100,000, the allotment would be S$100,000 x 49.68% = S$49,680. To ensure the final allotment is in multiples of S$1,000, the system would randomly round up or round down your allotment to S$50,000 or S$49,000.
For non-competitive applications with small investment amount like S$1,000, the random round up or round down adjustment would land you in either full allotment (S$1,000) or no allotment.
What is the Cut-Off Price?
T-bill doesn’t pay interest, instead gives a discount upfront to achieve the cut-off yield. The cut-off price is the discounted capital (i.e. capital minus interest) you pay for one unit of T-bill, and is calculated from cut-off yield based on the following steps:
Face Value = $100
Cut-off Yield = 4% p.a.
Term to Maturity = 182 days
Pro-rated Interest = $100 x 4% x 182 / 365 = $1.995
Cut-off Price = $100 – $1.995 = $98.005
For an allotted amount of $10,000, the successful applicant would receive $199.50 interest as a discount upfront, and also receive 100 units of the T-bills on the issue date with a net payment of $9,800.50.
Where to Find the Term to Maturity?
Take note that the calculation of pro-rated interest for 6-month T-bill is not based on half of the per annum yield, but it is based on a granularity in days. One can count the number of days from issue date to maturity date, but I found a way to get the Term to Maturity using the statistics search tools on MAS website: https://eservices.mas.gov.sg/statistics/fdanet/BondTreasuryBillsCMTBsAuctions.aspx
Just key in the Issue Code and check the data you want. Term to Maturity at Auction is the information we are looking for. You can either click the DISPLAY button to show the information on the browser, or click the DOWNLOAD button to get a Command-Separated Values (CSV) file that can be opened with Microsoft Excel.
The search results show that BS22122Z has a Term to Maturity of 182 days. If you search all the T-bills in 2022, the Term to Maturity for most of the 6-month T-bills are 182 days, with a couple at 181 days (e.g. BS22115F), and the 1-year T-bills are all 364 days.
What are the Median and Average Yields?
Median and average yields are different statistical measurements of central tendency. They are just FYI statistics provided to give a hint of the bidding distribution pattern, and they have no significance in the allotment.
The median yield is the middle yield in the ascending list of successful competitive bids. If the list has an odd amount of bids, the median yield is the yield right at the middle. If the list has an even number of bids, the median yield is the average of the middle pair.
The average yield is the sum product of the amount of successful competitive bids and the respective bid yields, divided by the total amount of successful competitive bids.
[Updates on 26 December 2023] When I first wrote this post, I thought the median and average yields were based on all competitive bids, but someone told me they were based on successful bids. I couldn’t find anything on MAS website to confirm this, so I left it vague by just mentioning competitive bids. Recently I noticed MAS had put information bubbles besides median and average yields, which clearly stated that they are computed based on successful competitive bids, hence the updates in the above two paragraphs.
Can Illustrate the Allotment Process by Example?
Let me use a hypothetical example to illustrate the allotment process:
In this example, the total amount offered/allotted is S$4.5 billion. Therefore, the 40% allotment cap to non-competitive applications is S$1.8 billion.
With a total S$2 billion applied for non-competitive, there is an over-subscription. The allotment ratio would be $1.8b/$2b = 90%, meaning all the non-competitive applicants would get partial allotment that is 90% of what they had applied, with random adjustments to ensure final allotments in multiples of S$1,000.
With S$1.8 billion allotted to non-competitive applications, the remaining S$2.7 billion would be allotted to competitive applications.
There are 8 competitive yield bids in this example. The yield bids are listed in ascending order, and the cumulative amount exceeds S$2.7 billion at 4.2% yield, i.e. the cut-off yield is determined to be 4.2%.
The balance amount available to the cut-off yield bidders after allotment to the lower yield bidders (cumulatively S$2.5 billion) would be $2.7b – $2.5b = S$0.2 billion. There are S$1 billion who bid at 4.2%, and the allotment ratio would be $0.2b/$1b = 20%. Hence, the 4.2% bidders would get partial allotment that is 20% of what they had applied, with random adjustments to ensure final allotments in multiples of S$1,000.
What is the Breakeven Yield for CPF Application?
Unlike Cash and SRS applications which have a negligible 0.05% p.a. opportunity cost, CPF opportunity cost is currently higher at 2.5% p.a. for OA and 4% p.a. for SA. Due to CPF interests are computed monthly based on the lowest balance of the month, you would forgo additional 1 or 2 months of CPF interests during the T-bill auction to maturity period.
For example, the T-bill issue BS22122Z is auctioned on 10 November 2022 and matures on 16 May 2023. When you succeed in getting some allotments, the discounted capital would be deducted from your CPFIA or SA soon after auction results are published, and the full face value would be returned to your CPFIA or SA on maturity. The whole auction to maturity period spans across 7 months (November 2022 to May 2023), resulting in you forgoing 7-month worth of CPF interests while earning 6-month worth of T-bill interests. That means you would need a higher T-bill cut-off yield than CPF interest rate to breakeven.
Some T-bill issues have their issue date cross over from auction month to the next month, e.g. the BS22121F issue has auction and issue dates on 27 October 2022 and 1 November 2022 respectively. This means that the auction to maturity period would span across 8 months (October 2022 to May 2023), and would need an even higher T-bill cut-off yield to breakeven.
The formula for computing the breakeven yield is given below:
With current OA and SA interest rates at 2.5% and 4% respectively, the breakeven yields for various T-bills would be:
6-month T-bill spanning 7 months applied with OA: Breakeven Yield = 2.5% x 7 / 6 = 2.92%
6-month T-bill spanning 8 months applied with OA: Breakeven Yield = 2.5% x 8 / 6 = 3.33%
6-month T-bill spanning 7 months applied with SA: Breakeven Yield = 4% x 7 / 6 = 4.67%
6-month T-bill spanning 8 months applied with SA: Breakeven Yield = 4% x 8 / 6 = 5.33%
12-month T-bill spanning 13 months applied with OA: Breakeven Yield = 2.5% x 13 / 12 = 2.71%
12-month T-bill spanning 13 months applied with SA: Breakeven Yield = 4% x 13 / 12 = 4.33%
What are the Considerations for CPF Application?
A few things to consider for CPF applications:
You would want to choose those T-bills with auction to maturity period that spans across only 1 additional month over the tenor in order to minimize the number of months with forgone CPF interests.
You would want to choose those T-bills with auction and issue dates located near the middle of the month in order to give ample times for debit and credit to occur within the auction month and maturity month respectively.
For CPFIS-OA application, the face value is returned to your CPFIA, not to your OA. You have to manually transfer the money in your CPFIA to OA within the maturity month through the internet banking portal of your CPFIS agent bank, or else you would end up forgoing more months of OA interests. You can set alarm on your mobile phone to remind you of this transfer on maturity month.
Since there is a breakeven yield to compensate for the forgone CPF interests, you should submit a competitive bid with a yield premium above the breakeven yield. You decide what is the acceptable yield premium to make it worth your effort of visiting the bank branch in person and spending your precious time waiting in line for application processing.
You should invest a sizeable amount for a decent gain in absolute dollars. Do realize that an 1% yield premium with S$10,000 investment on a 6-month T-bill is only going to give you a gain of about S$50 ($10,000 x 1% x 182 / 365 = S$49.86).
How to Confirm the Allotment Status?
There are several ways to confirm the allotment status of your T-bill applications:
Based on the published auction results, you can work out the allotment amount, the upfront discount amount and the discounted capital for your application. You can tally these numbers with the refund amount in your CDP-linked bank account for cash application, the refund amount in your SRS account for SRS application, or the debit amount in your CPFIA or SA for CPF application.
Some banks would notify you through SMS or email on the status of your application.
After the issue date, check your CDP account, SRS account, CPFIA or SA for cash, SRS, CPFIS-OA or SA application respectively. The allotted T-bill would appear in these accounts in the form of units (e.g. 100 units for S$100,000 investment amount).
Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.
Yesterday (10 November 2022) auction results for the 6-month T-bill BS22122Z presents an unique and interesting case study for psychological analysis.
Pre-Auction Information
Let’s take a look at the information given before the auction:
The Issue Details gives the dates for announcement, auction, issue and maturity. Yesterday was the auction day for BS22122Z.
MAS offered a total amount of S$4.5 billion for BS22122Z. The supply is S$100 million less than that of the last T-bill BS22121F (S$4.6 billion).
Auction Results
Usually the auction is closed by noon on the auction day, and the results are published at about 1~2 pm. But this time round there was a significant delay in publishing the auction results.
Total amount applied was S$14.2 billion, the demand is 30% more than the S$10.9 billion in the last T-bill auction. The cut-off yield is 4% p.a., a -4.5% drop from 4.19% p.a. in the last T-bill auction.
There are 2 record-breaking data given in this message:
Total over 92,000 bids in this auction, far exceeds the last T-bill auction.
Volume of non-competitive bids exceeds 40% of overall issuance size, first time in T-bill history.
These factors combined resulting in taking much longer time to process and publish the auction results.
I notice one detail about pro-rated allotment of non-competitive bids in the footnote, that the final allotments are in denominations of S$1,000 (i.e. lot size is 10 units) and there were random adjustments to ensure that.
Analysis of Auction Results
Let’s take a closer look at the full auction results published after 10:30pm:
Total Amount Allotted = S$4.5 billion Total Amount Applied = S$14.2 billion Total Bids Applied = over 92,000 bids Average Bid Size = 14.2b / 92k = under S$154k
Total Non-Competitive Amount Allotted = S$1.8 billion % of Non-Competitive Amount Allotted = 49.68% Total Non-Competitive Amount Applied = 1.8 / 49.68% = S$3.6 billion
Cut-off Yield = 4% p.a. Median Yield = 3.5% p.a. Average Yield = 2.87% p.a.
Cut-off yield higher than median yield (a.k.a. yield at midpoint) means that cut-off yield is in the upper half of the bidding range.
Average yield lower than median yield means that the lower half of the bidding range has much lower yield to drag the average yield down.
For average yield to be lower than both cut-off yield and median yield, there exists some bids that are lower than the average yield to offset the excess yield from cut-off yield and median yield.
Summary
The slight reduction in supply and the big jump in demand has tipped the scales towards the demand side, resulting in the cut-off yield heavily influenced by buyers’ behaviors.
There are probably many newbies who were attracted by the high yield in the last T-bill, and they took the easy way of submitting non-competitive bids, resulting in over-subscription of non-competitive applications.
Due to over-subscription, the final allotments to the non-competitive bidders are subjected to random adjustments to ensure lot size in multiples of S$1,000. Some of the small-sized non-competitive bidders might not get any allotment.
There are also increased awareness of using CPF OA money to apply for higher yielding T-bill and this influx of CPF bidders probably contributed to the 6-digit average bid size.
There are probably enough competitive bidders who submit low yields to secure full allotment at the auction, and collectively they dragged the cut-off yield down.
The underlying driving force of all these investor behaviors is Greed, arguably the most powerful human emotion that attracts people into the world of investing.
The bidders’ psychological elements in T-bill auction make this an interesting case study for the Game Theory, a theoretical framework for conceiving social situations among competing players as described by Investopedia.
BTC took a beating and broke below the 20000 support level. It has dropped to about 16200 as of this morning, approximately midway to the next support level at 12000:
After staying above Ichimoku Cloud for a while, ETH plunged below the cloud and is near the support level at 1040 as of this morning:
SOL took the hardest hit as a project backed by FTX’s founder Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF). It dropped from 38.79 (the high in November 2022) to about 13.5 as of this morning, suffering a -65% decline:
The stability of the crypto market seen in October 2022 had been shaken by the FTX Saga. If FTX the second largest crypto exchange is going bust and Binance the largest crypto exchange is unable to help, who knows what lies ahead with the other smaller exchanges. More people might lose confidence in crypto and there might be more “bank runs” in the coming months. There could be a shake-out in the crypto industry.
As for my crypto portfolio, I would continue to hold and monitor. Anyway, it was set up as a speculative investment with a 10% allocation limit to the overall investment portfolio. I’m going to stay the course and brace myself for the coming storm.
Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.
Performance Update
Here is the October 2022 Performance Update:
With the exception of SquirrelSave, all the other 4 robo advisors and 3 benchmark indices turned black in October 2022. The best performer among them are S&P 500, the only one with positive XIRR since the beginning of this Robo War Experiment.
Key Observations
October 2022 is another month of recovery this year.
SquirrelSave is the only portfolio that suffered a loss in October 2022.
The best performing robo advisor is MoneyOwl with 5.35% monthly return.
Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.
Tokenize Exchange Update
There is still no news of any PoW ETH fork. I decided to stake my Ethereum holdings, now with a reduced APR of 5%.
Performance Update
Overall crypto market seemed to be stabilized in October 2022 after the UST Depeg Saga in May 2022:
ETH was attempting to break above Ichimoku Cloud in October, and looks promising to raise above the cloud soon. If it succeeds in breaking out, the next resistance level is 1800.
Support levels for BTC and SOL (20000 and 28 respectively) had held up pretty well after the big drop in June. BTC had entered the cloud and SOL is testing the cloud from below. Lets wait to see when they can break above the cloud.
LUNA2 continued to stay in the doldrums and would probably stay that way for a long while.
Here is the performance update as of 31 October 2022:
Due to TKX continuing its rally, overall allocation of the crypto portfolio had almost doubled to 6.92%. The return and XIRR since inception had returned to positive territory. And ETH had reduced its loss to sub 40%.
Personal Wealth Life Cycle Management (PWLCM) 