March 2024 – Personal Wealth Life Cycle Management (PWLCM)

6-Month T-Bill Auction Trend – 2024 Q1 Update

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

The last 6-month T-bill (BS24106W) auction in the first quarter of 2024 has just ended on 27 March 2024. Let’s update the auction trend I shared in the blog post 6-Month T-Bill Auction Trend in 2022 and 2023 with the latest quarter results.

6-Month T-Bill Yield

The cut-off yield had been hoovering between 3.5% to 4% since 2023. This quarter we are seeing average yield moving closer to median yield, suggesting that the retail investors are bidding more sensibly, meaning less low ballers. This is a healthy trend.

6-Month T-Bill Application & Allotment Amount

I have added the bid-to-cover ratio to the chart, basically indicating the level of oversubscription that reflects the market interest towards T-bills. While the competitive applications remained relatively stable at $4 billions, the non-competitive applications climbed from virtually zero to above $2 billions. That is because the rise of cut-off yield above 3% in 2022 had caught the attention of retail investors, especially those who found the yield attractive enough to invest their CPF OA money. The newbies would typically submit non-competitive applications because they didn’t know how to set the competitive bid.

6-Month T-Bill vs 12-Week MAS Bill

The yield spread between T-bill and MAS bill seems to be narrowing in this quarter, again indicating the maturity of the retail investors.

T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics

The average T-bill yield premium over preceding MAS bill grew slightly wider in the first quarter than in 2023, so was the standard deviation.

Polynomial Trendline Projection

I have added this section to present a 3rd order polynomial trendline projection on the cut-off yield, first introduced in my blog post Projection of 6-Month T-Bills Cut-Off Yield in 2024. The projection results seemed to be quite promising for this quarter, but I’m not sure about the turn towards 5% at the end of the year. This doesn’t quite gel with the CME FedWatch Tool projecting Fed fund rate easing happening in second half of the year.

I shall observe the effectiveness of this trendline projection in the second quarter, and revise the projection method if necessary.

BS24106W 6-Month T-Bill Auction Results vs Prediction

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

Refer to BS24106W 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection for the projection:

Yield Premium Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.72%, ranging from 3.61% to 3.83%

Polynomial Trendline Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.65%, ranging from 3.55% to 3.75%

Today (27 March 2024) the auction results for BS24106W was released here:
https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auctions-and-issuance-calendar/auction-t-bill?issue_code=BS24106W&issue_date=2024-04-02

BS24106W Cut-Off Yield is 3.80%, this time round within the projected yield range based on Yield Premium Projection, and slightly above the range based on Polynomial Trendline Projection.

BS24106W 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

Yield Premium Projection

The updated 6-Month T-Bill vs 12-Week MAS Bill Yield chart and the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table:

The cut-off yield of ML24112X is 3.99%. Considering the average yield premium of -0.27% and standard deviation of 0.11% in 2024 so far, the projected cut-off-yield for BS24106W would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.99% – 0.27% = 3.72%
Projected Lower Yield = 3.72% – 0.11% = 3.61%
Projected Higher Yield = 3.72% + 0.11% = 3.83%

Polynomial Trendline Projection

The updated Polynomial Trendline Projection chart:

Based on this trendline projection method and the standard deviation of T-bill cut-off yield at 0.10% (refer to the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table) in 2024, the projected cut-off-yield for BS24106W would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.65%
Projected Lower Yield = 3.65% – 0.10% = 3.55%
Projected Higher Yield = 3.65% + 0.10% = 3.75%

Summary

Yield Premium Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.72%, ranging from 3.61% to 3.83%

Polynomial Trendline Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.65%, ranging from 3.55% to 3.75%

BS24105X 6-Month T-Bill Auction Results vs Prediction

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

Refer to BS24105X 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection for the projection:

Yield Premium Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.60%, ranging from 3.50% to 3.70%

Polynomial Trendline Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.60%, ranging from 3.50% to 3.70%

Today (14 March 2024) the auction results for BS24105X was released here:
https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auctions-and-issuance-calendar/auction-t-bill?issue_code=BS24105X&issue_date=2024-03-19

BS24105X Cut-Off Yield is 3.78%, once again above the projected yield range for both methods.

BS24105X 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

Yield Premium Projection

The updated 6-Month T-Bill vs 12-Week MAS Bill Yield chart and the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table:

The cut-off yield of ML24110H is 3.90%. Considering the average yield premium of -0.30% and standard deviation of 0.10% in 2024 so far, the projected cut-off-yield for BS24105X would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.90% – 0.30% = 3.60%
Projected Lower Yield = 3.60% – 0.10% = 3.50%
Projected Higher Yield = 3.60% + 0.10% = 3.70%

Polynomial Trendline Projection

The updated Polynomial Trendline Projection chart:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.60%
Projected Lower Yield = 3.60% – 0.10% = 3.50%
Projected Higher Yield = 3.60% + 0.10% = 3.70%

Summary

Yield Premium Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.60%, ranging from 3.50% to 3.70%

Polynomial Trendline Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.60%, ranging from 3.50% to 3.70%

Interestingly, both projection methods gave the same yield and range.

Robo War Experiment (RWE) Update – February 2024

This is a performance update to my Robo War Experiment (RWE) posted here:
https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2024/02/09/robo-war-experiment-rwe-update-january-2024/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

Performance Update

Here is the February 2024 Performance Update:

February 2024 was a strong month for all 5 robo advisors’ portfolios and the 3 benchmark indices. Endowus took the lead with an almost 5% monthly returns, but still lagged behind S&P 500.

To be fair, Endowus portfolio holdings are globally diversified, which performed well against the 2 MSCI global indices.

Key Observations

All 5 robo advisors and 3 benchmark indices put up a strong performance in February 2024.
Endowus portfolio is the top performer among robo advisors, with this month returns almost 5% and XIRR since inception above 5%.
As for the benchmark indices, S&P 500 clocked in a respectable YTD returns above 8% and XIRR since inception above 9%.

Referral Links

Endowus: https://endowus.com/invite?code=J6YV3
Syfe: https://www.syfe.com/invite/wealth/SRPTRJTFQ
StashAway: https://www.stashaway.sg/referrals/choonght43
MoneyOwl: https://moneyowl.com.sg/app/accounts/sign-up?referral_code=5FZY-58AG
SquirrelSave: https://app.squirrelsave.com.sg/Start/Referralcode?referralid=2996

Crypto Investment Update – February 2024

This is a performance update to my crypto portfolio posted here:
https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2024/02/04/crypto-investment-update-january-2024/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

LUNA 2.0 Airdrop Update – February 2024

Tokenize Exchange continued to credit the LUNA 2.0 airdrop on 9 February 2024 as scheduled.

Performance Update

Here are the charts of the 4 crypto coins in my portfolio as of end February 2024:

BTC, ETH and SOL broke their respective resistance levels of 52000, 2400 and 120 in February 2024. The rise was parabolic and might not be sustainable. A temporary breather will be good to gather strength for further upside.

My crypto portfolio performance as of 29 February 2024:

A strong rally turned ETH into positive returns territory. Only SOL remained in the red. And the crypto portfolio allocation moved up strongly to 7.85% of my overall investment portfolio. When it reaches 10%, I would begin to look at taking profit and hopefully withdrawing my capital only to play with house money moving forward.

The Year of the Dragon rocks!

Referral Links

Tokenize Exchange:
https://tokenize.exchange/topic/invited/?invite_code=Vn58M