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Auction Results
Total Amount Allotted = S$4.4 billion
Total Amount Applied = S$11.8 billion
Total Non-Competitive Amount Allotted = S$1.6 billion
% of Non-Competitive Amount Allotted = 100%
Total Non-Competitive Amount Applied = S$1.6 billion
Total Competitive Amount Applied = 11.8 – 1.6 = S$10.2 billion
Total Competitive Amount Allotted = 4.4 – 1.6 = S$2.8 billion
Cut-off Yield = 4.28% p.a.
Median Yield = 4% p.a.
Average Yield = 3.76% p.a.
Compare BS22125T with BS22124H
Let’s compare the auction results of BS22125T with the previous T-bill (refer to Analysis of 6-Month T-Bill BS22124H Auction Results) as follows:
- Total amount allotted dropped from S$4.6 billion to S$4.4 billion.
- Total amount applied increased from S$9.3 billion to S$11.8 billion.
- Total non-competitive amount applied increased from S$1.2 billion to S$1.6 billion.
- % of non-competitive amount allotted remained at 100%.
- Total competitive amount applied increased from S$8.1 billion to S$10.2 billion.
- Total competitive amount allotted dropped from S$3.4 billion to S$2.8 billion.
- Cut-off yield dropped from 4.4% to 4.28%.
- Median yield increased from 3.85% to 4%.
- Average yield increased from 3.73% to 3.76%.
Observations
- Overall supply dropped while demand increased.
- Non-competitive applications increased, but not over-subscribed.
- Competitive applications increased, and yet allotment dropped.
- Both median and average yields increased.
- Cut-off yield dropped from 2022 high achieved in the previous T-bill issue.
MAS Bills to T-Bills Projection
Let’s continue to update the MAS Bills to T-Bills Projection table with the latest yields (refer to “Projection of T-Bills Cut-Off Yield“):
I have added another set of statistical metrics based on yield delta data starting from the BS22119T T-bill issue when the delta began turning into negative value. This represents the recent 3 months trend.
Linear Trendline Projection
An update on the Linear Trendline Projection chart with the latest yield (refer to “Projection of T-Bills Cut-Off Yield“):
The cut-off yield dipped below the trendline for the latest T-bill issue.
Auction Trend
An update on the auction data of T-bills in 2022:
With the previous T-bill cut-off yield making 2022 high of 4.4%, the relatively high yield attracted T-bill investors back to the game, resulting in higher bid-to-cover ratio. And yet, less people went for non-competitive bids, hence the non-competitive bidders received full allotment.
With more competitive bidders over less allotment amount, the cut-off yield had dropped. However, competitive bidding showed signs of rationality with both median and average yields increasing.
Summary
- No over-subscription in non-competitive applications, hence 100% allotment.
- Competitive bidding is getting more rational with higher median and average bids.
- Rising demand met with lower supply results in lower cut-off yield.
Personal Wealth Life Cycle Management (PWLCM) 