BS24108V 6-Month T-Bill Auction Results vs Prediction

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.


Refer to BS24108V 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection for the projection:

Yield Premium Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.62%, ranging from 3.51% to 3.73%

Polynomial Trendline Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.72%, ranging from 3.63% to 3.81%

Today (23 April 2024) the auction results for BS24108V was released here:
https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auctions-and-issuance-calendar/auction-t-bill?issue_code=BS24108V&issue_date=2024-04-30


BS24108V Cut-Off Yield is 3.74%, this time round just 2 basis points above the projected cut-off yield based on Polynomial Trendline, and 1 basis point above the upper boundary based on Yield Premium Projection.

BS24108V 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.


Yield Premium Projection

The updated 6-Month T-Bill vs 12-Week MAS Bill Yield chart and the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table are shown below:


The cut-off yield of ML24116A is 3.92%. Considering the average yield premium of -0.24% and standard deviation of 0.11% in 2024 so far, the projected cut-off-yield for BS24108V would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.92% – 0.24% = 3.68%
Projected Lower Yield = 3.68% – 0.11% = 3.57%
Projected Higher Yield = 3.68% + 0.11% = 3.79%

Polynomial Trendline Projection

The updated Polynomial Trendline Projection chart is shown here:


Based on this trendline projection method and the standard deviation of T-bill cut-off yield at 0.09% (refer to the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table) in 2024, the projected cut-off-yield for BS24108V would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.72%
Projected Lower Yield = 3.72% – 0.09% = 3.63%
Projected Higher Yield = 3.72% + 0.09% = 3.81%

Summary

Yield Premium Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.68%, ranging from 3.57% to 3.79%

Polynomial Trendline Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.72%, ranging from 3.63% to 3.81%

BS24107N 6-Month T-Bill Auction Results vs Prediction

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.


Refer to BS24107N 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection for the projection:

Yield Premium Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.62%, ranging from 3.51% to 3.73%

Polynomial Trendline Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.66%, ranging from 3.57% to 3.75%

Today (11 April 2024) the auction results for BS24107N was released here:
https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auctions-and-issuance-calendar/auction-t-bill?issue_code=BS24107N&issue_date=2024-04-16


BS24107N Cut-Off Yield is 3.75%, this time round hit the upper boundary of the projected yield range based on Polynomial Trendline Projection, and slightly above the range based on Yield Premium Projection.

BS24107N 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.


Yield Premium Projection

The updated 6-Month T-Bill vs 12-Week MAS Bill Yield chart and the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table:


The cut-off yield of ML24114N is 3.88%. Considering the average yield premium of -0.26% and standard deviation of 0.11% in 2024 so far, the projected cut-off-yield for BS24107N would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.88% – 0.26% = 3.62%
Projected Lower Yield = 3.62% – 0.11% = 3.51%
Projected Higher Yield = 3.62% + 0.11% = 3.73%

Polynomial Trendline Projection

The updated Polynomial Trendline Projection chart:


Based on this trendline projection method and the standard deviation of T-bill cut-off yield at 0.09% (refer to the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table) in 2024, the projected cut-off-yield for BS24107N would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.66%
Projected Lower Yield = 3.66% – 0.09% = 3.57%
Projected Higher Yield = 3.66% + 0.09% = 3.75%

Summary

Yield Premium Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.62%, ranging from 3.51% to 3.73%

Polynomial Trendline Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.66%, ranging from 3.57% to 3.75%

Crypto Investment Update – March 2024

This is a performance update to my crypto portfolio posted here:
https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2024/03/08/crypto-investment-update-february-2024/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.


LUNA 2.0 Airdrop Update – March 2024

Tokenize Exchange continued to credit the LUNA 2.0 airdrop on 9 March 2024 as scheduled.

Performance Update

Here are the charts of the 4 crypto coins in my portfolio as of end March 2024:


BTC broke above the 66,000 resistance level and previous All Time High (ATH) at about 69,000. That means it went into a no-man land, so I added Fibonacci Extension (FibExt) to BTC chart to get a feel of how high it can reach. Within March 2024, BTC hit the new ATH at about 73,700, then retraced and rebounded between the 100% and 138.2% FibExt levels.

I also added FibExt to ETH and SOL charts. Unlike BTC, both ETH and SOL haven’t reached previous ATH, potentially more room for them to rally. ETH managed to reach almost the 161.8% FibExt level at about 4100, then retrieved and rebounded to stay above the support level 3,500. SOL didn’t reach 138.2% FibExt level at about 220, but still managed to stay about support level 180.

All these 3 coins performed very well in March 2024. The retracement after hitting recent high was the temporary breather I mentioned in my February 2024 crypto update. I believe the bull is still intact, and I have set up some limit sell orders on BTC, ETH and TKX to capture some partial profits.

My crypto portfolio performance as of 31 March 2024:


The good performance in March 2024 had improved all returns numbers, and the crypto portfolio allocation had moved beyond 8%. SOL is the only coin in the red, but its loss had pared down to under 2%. Good chance that SOL may turn positive in April 2024. We shall see.

Referral Links

Tokenize Exchange:
https://tokenize.exchange/topic/invited/?invite_code=Vn58M

Robo War Experiment (RWE) Update – March 2024

This is a performance update to my Robo War Experiment (RWE) posted here:
https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2024/03/08/robo-war-experiment-rwe-update-february-2024/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.


Performance Update

Here is the March 2024 Performance Update:


Another month of positive performance for the 5 robo advisors’ portfolios and the 3 benchmark indices. Except for Syfe monthly returns lagging slightly behind S&P 500, this month we saw that robo advisors’ portfolios performed better than the indices. StashAway managed to turn positive in terms of XIRR since inception.

Key Observations

  1. All 5 robo advisors and 3 benchmark indices showed positive monthly returns in March 2024.
  2. SquirrelSave had the highest monthly returns among the robo advisors.
  3. StashAway just turned positive in terms of XIRR since inception.
  4. Endowus marched above 6% in terms of XIRR since inception.
  5. SquirrelSave was the only robo advisor remained in negative territory in terms of XIRR since inception.

Referral Links

Endowus: https://endowus.com/invite?code=J6YV3
Syfe: https://www.syfe.com/invite/wealth/SRPTRJTFQ
StashAway: https://www.stashaway.sg/referrals/choonght43
MoneyOwl: https://moneyowl.com.sg/app/accounts/sign-up?referral_code=5FZY-58AG
SquirrelSave: https://app.squirrelsave.com.sg/Start/Referralcode?referralid=2996

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