BS24109A Cut-Off Yield is 3.70%, within the projected yield range in both projection methods, and is lower than the previous 3.74% as projected in my blog post.
Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.
Yield Premium Projection
The updated 6-Month T-Bill vs 12-Week MAS Bill Yield chart and the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table are shown below:
The cut-off yield of ML24118F is 3.88%. Considering the average yield premium of -0.24% and standard deviation of 0.10% in 2024 so far, the projected cut-off-yield for BS24109A would be:
The updated Polynomial Trendline Projection chart is shown here:
Based on this trendline projection method and the standard deviation of T-bill cut-off yield at 0.08% (refer to the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table) in 2024, the projected cut-off-yield for BS24109A would be:
Yield Premium Projection: Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.64%, ranging from 3.54% to 3.74%
Polynomial Trendline Projection: Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.74%, ranging from 3.66% to 3.82%
The yield premium method is offering a lower projected yield range than the trendline method. The overlap is from 3.66% to 3.74%. We are likely to see this coming T-bill cut-off yield to be lower than the previous 3.74%.
BS24108V Cut-Off Yield is 3.74%, this time round just 2 basis points above the projected cut-off yield based on Polynomial Trendline, and 1 basis point above the upper boundary based on Yield Premium Projection.
Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.
Yield Premium Projection
The updated 6-Month T-Bill vs 12-Week MAS Bill Yield chart and the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table are shown below:
The cut-off yield of ML24116A is 3.92%. Considering the average yield premium of -0.24% and standard deviation of 0.11% in 2024 so far, the projected cut-off-yield for BS24108V would be:
The updated Polynomial Trendline Projection chart is shown here:
Based on this trendline projection method and the standard deviation of T-bill cut-off yield at 0.09% (refer to the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table) in 2024, the projected cut-off-yield for BS24108V would be:
BS24107N Cut-Off Yield is 3.75%, this time round hit the upper boundary of the projected yield range based on Polynomial Trendline Projection, and slightly above the range based on Yield Premium Projection.
Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.
Yield Premium Projection
The updated 6-Month T-Bill vs 12-Week MAS Bill Yield chart and the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table:
The cut-off yield of ML24114N is 3.88%. Considering the average yield premium of -0.26% and standard deviation of 0.11% in 2024 so far, the projected cut-off-yield for BS24107N would be:
The updated Polynomial Trendline Projection chart:
Based on this trendline projection method and the standard deviation of T-bill cut-off yield at 0.09% (refer to the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table) in 2024, the projected cut-off-yield for BS24107N would be:
Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.
The last 6-month T-bill (BS24106W) auction in the first quarter of 2024 has just ended on 27 March 2024. Let’s update the auction trend I shared in the blog post 6-Month T-Bill Auction Trend in 2022 and 2023 with the latest quarter results.
6-Month T-Bill Yield
The cut-off yield had been hoovering between 3.5% to 4% since 2023. This quarter we are seeing average yield moving closer to median yield, suggesting that the retail investors are bidding more sensibly, meaning less low ballers. This is a healthy trend.
6-Month T-Bill Application & Allotment Amount
I have added the bid-to-cover ratio to the chart, basically indicating the level of oversubscription that reflects the market interest towards T-bills. While the competitive applications remained relatively stable at $4 billions, the non-competitive applications climbed from virtually zero to above $2 billions. That is because the rise of cut-off yield above 3% in 2022 had caught the attention of retail investors, especially those who found the yield attractive enough to invest their CPF OA money. The newbies would typically submit non-competitive applications because they didn’t know how to set the competitive bid.
6-Month T-Bill vs 12-Week MAS Bill
The yield spread between T-bill and MAS bill seems to be narrowing in this quarter, again indicating the maturity of the retail investors.
T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics
The average T-bill yield premium over preceding MAS bill grew slightly wider in the first quarter than in 2023, so was the standard deviation.
Polynomial Trendline Projection
I have added this section to present a 3rd order polynomial trendline projection on the cut-off yield, first introduced in my blog post Projection of 6-Month T-Bills Cut-Off Yield in 2024. The projection results seemed to be quite promising for this quarter, but I’m not sure about the turn towards 5% at the end of the year. This doesn’t quite gel with the CME FedWatch Tool projecting Fed fund rate easing happening in second half of the year.
I shall observe the effectiveness of this trendline projection in the second quarter, and revise the projection method if necessary.
BS24106W Cut-Off Yield is 3.80%, this time round within the projected yield range based on Yield Premium Projection, and slightly above the range based on Polynomial Trendline Projection.
Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.
Yield Premium Projection
The updated 6-Month T-Bill vs 12-Week MAS Bill Yield chart and the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table:
The cut-off yield of ML24112X is 3.99%. Considering the average yield premium of -0.27% and standard deviation of 0.11% in 2024 so far, the projected cut-off-yield for BS24106W would be:
The updated Polynomial Trendline Projection chart:
Based on this trendline projection method and the standard deviation of T-bill cut-off yield at 0.10% (refer to the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table) in 2024, the projected cut-off-yield for BS24106W would be:
Personal Wealth Life Cycle Management (PWLCM) 